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At the recent PIE Live Europe conference, Enroly’s Director of Growth and Partnerships, Katie Layt, chaired a vital discussion titled "Cat and Mouse Game of Recruitment: Navigating Success and Setbacks in High-Risk Markets". As global recruitment in 2026 feels increasingly like a high-speed chase, the session brought together a powerhouse panel to unpick the reality behind the data and discuss how institutional policies must evolve to keep pace with a shifting landscape.
The panel featured:
- Victoria Isherwood, University of Exeter (Russell Group perspective)
- Syed Nooh, University of East Anglia (In-country & insights perspective)
- Sophie Turnbull, University of the West of England (Post-92 perspective)
- Katherine Ovens, AHZ (Agency perspective)
The Data: A sector under immense pressure
The session opened with a sobering look at Enroly’s January 2026 intake data, comparing it to the previous year to provide an "apples to apples" view of the sector’s health. While September 2025 showed year-on-year growth, the January 2026 cycle told a different story:
- Declining Volumes: Acceptances finished in decline by 10%, while CAS issued volume plummeted by nearly 27%.
- Conversion Crunch: The conversion rate from acceptance to CAS issued saw a 19% decline year-on-year, a trend that is becoming significantly more pronounced.
- Skyrocketing Refusals: Overall visa refusals on the platform rose by 419%. In specific markets like Nigeria, the rate of change was an eye-watering 2,573%, though this started from a very low base in 2025.
- The Revenue Hit: Enroly’s modeling suggests that visa rejections alone will cost the sector approximately £90 million for the current academic year, with an additional £25.5 million lost due to recent visa breaks in markets like Myanmar, Cameroon, Afghanistan, and Sudan.
Is "Russell Group safety" an illusion?
A recurring question in the sector is whether prestigious institutions are truly insulated from these shifts. Victoria Isherwood noted that while high volumes from compliant markets (like East Asia and the US) provide a "buffer" for Russell Group metrics, the landscape is changing.
As Chinese numbers soften, some Russell Group institutions are becoming more "aggressive," offering large scholarships and higher commissions to compete in markets traditionally dominated by modern universities. Victoria warned that even those currently in the "green" must remain vigilant, as a few "bad faith players" can quickly push an institution toward the 4% refusal threshold that triggers Home Office intervention.
Beyond the "high-risk" label
The panel challenged the sector to stop viewing "high-risk" markets as a monolith. Syed Nooh pointed out a critical strategic gap: while markets like Bangladesh and Pakistan are consistently in the top 10 for the UK, very few universities invest in a physical in-country presence there.
Instead, institutions often manage these markets from hubs like Dubai. Syed argued that if universities don't go out and promote themselves directly to the high-quality students in these regions who can afford the fees, they shouldn't be surprised when they struggle to navigate the risk.
The human cost of shifting goalposts
Katherine Ovens from AHZ highlighted the frustration of "shifting goalposts". Agencies are investing heavily in compliance - interviewing every student and recording those sessions - yet students who pass both agency and university credibility checks are still facing refusals at the UKVI stage.
The impact is not just financial; it is deeply personal. "People forget that it’s a student at the end, and it’s really sad," Katherine noted, citing cases where students have their CAS or deposits withdrawn at the last minute due to sudden policy changes.
Moving forward: Collaboration over judgment
As the sector navigates what Sophie Turnbull described as "unprecedented growth" followed by a sharp "correction," the consensus was clear: the sector cannot afford to implode.
Sophie urged institutions to move away from judging one another's strategies and instead focus on ethical recruitment and partnership. "It doesn't feel like a time to separate. It feels like a time to pull together and work together on what is a very challenging time".
Final thoughts
In closing, the panel made it clear that high-risk markets are no longer a side story in UK international recruitment – they are the story. With falling acceptances, weaker acceptance-to-CAS conversion and rising visa refusals across markets such as India, Nigeria, Pakistan, Nepal and Bangladesh, institutions are navigating a far more complex landscape.
At Enroly, we believe that better data and shared intelligence are key to navigating this shift. By bringing together insights from across the sector, universities can move beyond reactive decision-making toward a more resilient, data-led approach to international recruitment.
Is your institution ready to adapt its strategy for the year ahead?
